Ukunqongophala kwe-chip kunokujika kwi-chip oversupply ngo-2023, ngokutsho kwe-IDC yomhlalutyi.Mhlawumbi ayisosisombululo-sonke kwabo banqwenela i-silicon emitsha yemizobo namhlanje, kodwa, heyi, ubuncinci inika ithemba lokuba le ayizukuhlala ngonaphakade, akunjalo?
Ingxelo ye-IDC (ngeRejista) iphawula ukuba ilindele ukuba ishishini le-semiconductor libone "ulungelelwaniso kunye nolungelelwaniso phakathi kuka-2022, kunye nokubakho komthamo omkhulu ngo-2023 njengoko ukwandiswa komthamo omkhulu kuqala ukuza kwi-intanethi ngasekupheleni kuka-2022."
Umthamo wokuvelisa kwakhona kuthiwa sele ukhutshiwe ngo-2021, oko kuthetha ukuba yonke impahla ibhukishelwe ixesha eliseleyo lonyaka.Nangona kuxelwa ukuba kujongeka ngcono kancinci kwiinkampani ezingenamsebenzi (okt AMD, Nvidia) ukubamba iitshiphusi ezizifunayo.
Nangona oko kuza isilumkiso sokunqongophala kwezinto kunye nokucotha kokwenziwa komva (zonke iinkqubo ekufuneka zenziwe kwi-wafer).emvayenziwe).
Ngoxinzelelo olongezelelweyo lwebonanza yokuthenga iholide ukuya ekupheleni konyaka, kunye nokubonelela okuphantsi okukhokelela kwixesha elixakekileyo, ndingathatha uqikelelo lokuba thina, njengabathengi, akunakwenzeka ukuba sizive izibonelelo zobonelelo oluphuculweyo oluthile- Ndiyavuya ukufunyaniswa ukuba andilunganga, nangona kunjalo.
Kodwa ezo ziseziindaba ezimnandi malunga nonyaka ozayo kunye no-2023, nangona ubukhulu becala ihambelana noko sikuvileyo kwi-Intel kunye ne-TSMC kulo nyaka uphelileyo malunga nokubonelela ngemiba.
Ngokumalunga nokuba yeyiphi imilinganiselo emikhulu yokwandiswa kwendlela, kukho inkitha yeeprojekthi zokwenziwa kwemizi-mveliso kwimisebenzi.I-Intel, i-Samsung, kunye ne-TSMC (ukukhankanya kuphela ezona zikhulu) zonke zicwangcisa amaziko amatsha okwenza itshiphu, kuquka iimfumba e-US.
Nangona kunjalo, uninzi lwezi mpahla aziyi kunikwa amandla kunye nokumpompa iitshiphusi kude kube semva kowama-2022.
Ngoko ke uphuculo olufana nengxelo ye-IDC kufuneka luxhomekeke kutyalo-mali oluya ekugcineni, ekuphuculeni, nasekwandiseni isiseko esikhoyo.Njengoko inkqubo entsha yenkqubo iqala ukufikelela kwimveliso yevolumu nayo iya kunceda ukuthomalalisa ukuxinana kwangoku.
Abavelisi baya kulumka ukuba bahambe ngaphezulu ekwandiseni ubonelelo, nangona kunjalo.Bathengisa yonke into abanokuyakha ngoku kwaye ukuhambisa ngokugqithisileyo kwindawo yokubonelela kungabashiya bequbha kwiitshiphusi ezishiyekileyo okanye behlise amaxabiso.Oko kwenzeka kanye kuNvidia, kwaye ayizange iphele kakuhle.
Yintambo encinci: kwelinye icala, amandla amakhulu ekukhonzeni iimveliso ezininzi kubathengi abaninzi;kwelinye, ukubanakho ukushiywa ngamalaphu exabiso eliphezulu angenzi ngeniso eninzi kangangoko benako.
Njengoko konke oku kuhambelana nabadlali bemidlalo, ngamakhadi emizobo abonakala ngathi achaphazeleka kakhulu kukunqongophala kwesilicon kunye nemfuno enkulu ngaphezu kwalo naliphi na elinye icandelo.Amaxabiso e-GPU abonakale ehla kakhulu ukusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, nangona iingxelo zamva nje zibonisa ukuba asikaphumi ehlathini.
Ke ngekhe ndilindele utshintsho olukhulu kubonelelo lwekhadi lemizobo ngo-2021, nokuba ingxelo ye-IDC iyinyani.Ndizakuthi, nangona kunjalo, kuba bobabini umhlalutyi kunye ne-CEO babonakala bevuma ukuba u-2023 uza kubuyela esiqhelweni, ndinethemba lokuthula kweso siphumo.
Ubuncinci ngaloo ndlela sinokuba nethuba lokuchola ubuncinci i-Nvidia RTX 4000-series okanye i-AMD RX 7000-series ikhadi lemizobo kwi-MSRP-nokuba oko kuthetha ukushiya esi sizukulwana sinokuba sihle njengento encinci ye-squib emanzi.